Investment sales activity in 2007 finished at near record levels despite the national disruption within the debt capital markets. Many firms reported Fourth quarter numbers were down significantly from historical norms and activity levels are expected to be lower in the foreseeable future. Driven by changing debt availability and terms, significant pricing gaps among buyers and sellers are creating delays in launching of any major assets sales. This slowdown is expected to continue well into 2008 until liquidity returns to the marketplace.
The new year triggers new hopes and fears as real estate capital markets continue readjusting from nearly a decade of uninterrupted volume and pricing momentum. While many investors fear new funding restrictions, others welcome more disciplined and “customary” underwriting practices deemed to be “normal.”
Prepayment penalties can be substantial to borrowers, as well as attractive profit protection for lenders. Borrowers need flexibility, while lenders seek yield preservation.
The highest risks and rewards are clearly centered in the land acquisition and development arena. Land is the first development ingredient impacted by economic cycles as is painfully obvious in today’s residential markets. And even in good times, land is burdened with costs and seldom offers income.
Within the past five years, student housing has been promoted to a favorite property type and subcategory within the multi-family real estate finance sector. Historically, this entrepreneurially-driven industry was controlled by local/regional players. Now, more national firms are acquiring and aggregating student housing portfolios – especially in major university campuses. This sector promises dynamic growth as many institutions are severely in need of affordable and available student housing within near campuses. Furthermore, this sector is not as closely tied to the current residential market malaise as higher education is in strong demand and limited facilities are available.
Despite real estate debt market turmoil, overall equity yields for income properties remain near 40-year-lows. While bargain-hunting abounds in the residential arena -- particularly new condominium developments in overbuilt metro areas, investors still crave for high-quality, income properties. While the mode is cautious and selective, funds are readily available as public funds, private capital, foreign buyers and tax-exchange players aggressively hunt for Class-A properties -- assets with strong cash flow and upside potential.
Medical Office Buildings (MOBs) are one of the more exciting development and acquisition opportunities within the income-property investment arena. However, given today's uncertain financing market conditions, these properties require more underwriting knowledge than other conventional property types (e.g. apartment, retail and office properties).
Given this late summer's tumultuous realty capital markets and property oversupply concerns (e.g., retail and residential), borrowers are often puzzled about how new construction loans are underwritten.
Since December, the yield curve remains inverted, suggesting the looming threat of a recession and credit market turmoil. However, the previous time the yield curve inverted within the past decade, a recession did not occur. This phenomenon has proven to be a result of domestic and international investors flocking to longer-term, US debt instruments. The winners, of course, are long-term borrowers.
During the subprime credit crunch of the past two months, most of the focus remains on loan performance and treasury rates. While these indices are accurate gauges of market conditions, a long-ignored index resurfaced on the watchlist -- LIBOR ( London interbank offering rate).